[DS STEPN] STEPN gems upgrade expectation

STEPN gems upgrade expectation (🚨🚧🚧🚧 Work in progress 🚧🚧🚧🚨)

This (outdated 🚨) application computes the profit mathematical expectation of the fusion of 3 gems to upgrade to 1 gem of a better quality.
Chain:
Upgrade cost @@C@@ =… =…
@@P@@ =… =…
@@Q@@ =… =…
Ratio @@Q / P@@
Sell fees @@F@@
+ Gain if you win @@Q \left(1 - \frac{F}{100}\right)@@ =… =…
− Total upgrade cost @@3P + C@@ =… =…
= Profit if you win @@Q \left(1 - \frac{F}{100}\right) - (3P + C)@@ =… =…
Probability to win @@W@@ %
+ Gain expectation @@Q \left(1 - \frac{F}{100}\right) \frac{W}{100}@@ =… =…
− Total upgrade cost @@3P + C@@ =… =…
= Profit expectation @@Q \left(1 - \frac{F}{100}\right) \frac{W}{100} - (3P + C)@@ =… =…
ℹ️ Coin prices come from CoinGecko.

Try successive upgrades until have profit

(🚨🚧 Work in progress 🚧🚨)
@@N@@# winsGain−Cost=ProfitProbabilityCumulative prob.Expectation
100%==

Fixed number @@N@@ of upgrades

(🚨🚧 Work in progress 🚧🚨)
Gain expectation Total upgrades cost Profit expectation Probability of Profit and probability
@@N@@ @@Q \left(1 - \frac{F}{100}\right) \sum_{i=1}^N i \binom{N}{i} \left(\frac{W}{100}\right)^i \left(1 - \frac{W}{100}\right)^{N-i}@@ − @@(3P + C) N@@ = positive profit for each number of success
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Gem price history

⚠️ Don’t trust these data. Check by yourself. And pay attention to the fact that maybe no one is buying.
Date Chain Gem Quality 1 Quality 2 Quality 3 Quality 4
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